To put it mildly, the spike in volatility-of-volatility is a spectacle that underlines just how jittery markets have become,
Despite the widespread downturn in global markets, A-shares' resilience against declines indicates that previous adjustments have been quite sufficient,
More importantly, it (the stock slump) may reflect fundamental concerns, specifically the unclear economic outlook in the US, with the recent data releases, including labor market indicators, also below expectations,
Capital tends to seek new valuation opportunities, and A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are undoubtedly among these attractive valuation areas,
As to how much it may draw in terms of foreign investment, it will also depend on domestic economic conditions and policy developments,
Markets tend to move higher like they’re climbing stairs, and they go down like they’re falling out a window,
We have seen the highest wage increase in 33 years during this year’s Spring Labor Negotiations, also capital investment has exceeded over 100 trillion yen, and the stock market has reached a historical high, all of which are positive developments,
Odds of a soft landing will increase if China weakness leads to a deeper plunge in WTI, pushing down inflation further, and allowing the Fed to be more aggressive,
With the soft employment report, the NASDAQ correction, the plunge in bond yields, and the plunge in commodity prices, it's possible we're seeing recession signals coming home to roost,
Markets are caught in an aggressive risk-unwind as equities plunge around the world, with tech getting hit particularly hard,
Markets are in absolute turmoil this morning thanks to the Nikkei 225’s biggest one-day drop since 1987, which has wiped out the index’s gains for the year.”
Everyone must be prepared for a global stock market crash, this is part of the business cycle,
The fundamentals for TSMC have not changed at all. Yes, there was market talk last week that delivery of Nvidia's new GB 200 chips would be delayed, and Intel's earnings results were terrible. But TSMC and the upstream AI supply chain would not be affected by those events,
We think the decline will continue into the next two days, seeking technical support levels of 19,200-19,300 points,
Specifically, the scenario of higher unemployment constraining spending and further restraining hiring and incomes and economic activity leading to a recession is the feared scenario here,
One very important difference in 2024 is extreme degree to which risk assets have front-run Fed cuts,
It's a pretty dramatic shift in narrative, which shows how much of the recent trends were backed by expectations of a US soft landing, ... The more the US soft landing assumption gets questioned, the further pullback we could see in equities and strategies funded with the low-yielding currencies where positioning has been massively skewed
From a Fed perspective, this does not translate into making hasty policy decisions, but it should help them remove the rose-tinted glasses when assessing policy decisions at the next meeting,
We have increased our 12-month recession odds by 10pp to 25 per cent,
The Fed could ride in on a white horse to save the day with a big rate cut, but the case for an inter-meeting cut seems flimsy,