It is extremely difficult for numerical models to get the timing and magnitude of [rapid intensification] correct,
I don't know the answer to that question, ... but I think that's an important question that we should be asking."
As the world warms, rapid intensification becomes more of the norm,
That adds a little bit more to the comfort level,
The airport, in collaboration with federal and airline partners, agreed to cease commercial operations to prevent aircraft from operating under unsafe weather conditions for landings and take-offs,
Our business continuity planning efforts and exercises, which are broadly participated in by our member firms, are designed to prepare the industry to the extent possible for major events such as this one,
Hurricane winds grab people's attention, but flooding is probably the biggest concern with Milton. Winds of 150mph can easily destroy buildings and cause injuries and fatalities if people are caught out in the open by flying debris,
Numerical models in the past five years or so have improved to resolve hurricanes and typhoons at global scales and they do agree that the intensification of hurricanes (more hurricanes of strength 4 or 5) and typhoons, and a tendency for depression to turn more easily into hurricanes is the result of climate change,
There have only been five other years (since 1950) in which there were more than one Category 5 hurricane in a single season; 1961 (2), 2005 (4), 2007 (2), 2017 (2), and most recently 2019 (2),
Watching Milton's strengthening unfold in real time yesterday was still staggering,
This is nothing short of astronomical,
We are witnessing a genuinely extraordinary and regionally quite deadly and destructive period for extreme weather in the United States,
Hurricane Milton's minimum pressure has dropped to the infamous sub-900 mb mark, with a central pressure of 897 mb, making it the 5th most intense hurricane in Atlantic history by central pressure,
There is evidence that storms are getting stronger and intensifying more rapidly due to climate change, due to there being warmer waters available to fuel tropical cyclones,
There is strong agreement that the frequency and intensity of major tropical cyclones (Category 3 and above) are likely to increase as a result of climate change. This is driven by rising ocean temperatures, which provide more thermal energy to fuel tropical cyclones, and the increased capacity of a warmer atmosphere to hold moisture, leading to heavier rainfall during the landfall of these storms."
Based on the understanding that winds at Category 5 and above lead to catastrophic outcomes, it's hard to see how adding a Category 6 would help the public. If a Category 5 means 'expect catastrophic consequences,' what would Category 6 mean?"
Precipitation rates—and flooding damage and danger—increase exponentially with rising temperatures. The former is a complicated function of a changing climate, as storm surge depends on not just wind speeds but the size of the storm and the speed of forward progress,
The scale, for one thing, fails to account for key hurricane impacts other than high winds. Indeed, the majority of hurricane-related fatalities are due to storm surge (50 percent) and flooding (27 percent). The latter has no bounds,
I think what we really want to make folks to do is to take any hurricane seriously, regardless of category,
Of the 197 [tropical cyclones] that were classified as category 5 during the 42-[year] period 1980 to 2021, which comprises the period of highest quality and most consistent data, half of them occurred in the last 17 y of the period. Five of those storms exceeded our hypothetical category 6 and all of these occurred in the last 9 y of the record,