There is a paradox in these talks and peace initiatives – Ukraine and Russia are both vying for Donald Trump’s attention and seeking to improve their positions with his help,
Moscow has every reason to believe that … if this process lands anywhere, it will land in a place that is more or less on Russia’s terms, as long as the process is being driven by Washington,
As for the settlement of the situation, I would like to emphasize that it shouldn’t be aimed at a brief truce — some sort of a break for regrouping troops and rearmament in order to continue the conflict — but a long-term peace,
Peace would allow Russia to influence Ukrainian politics and use peaceful means to ensure friendly relations,
Russia could say ‘yes, but’ to a ceasefire offer, accepting a 30-day truce on condition that an embargo is imposed on arms supplies to Ukraine,
The sort of ceasefire that it might be interested in is quite clearly not the kind of ceasefire that the Ukrainians or the Europeans might be interested in, although the Americans may be more malleable on that,
In reality, the current Kyiv regime cannot be changed from inside the country. Its complete dismantling is needed,
It’s not clear what would be the benefit for Russia,
Zelensky has passed the test of wanting peace. It is now up to Putin to show his card."
If they do not pursue the ceasefire with the same vigour as Ukraine, there will be hell to pay."
We've got some conversations that are happening on the phone and in person and in person with some of our representatives over the next couple of days,
Trump is likely to find that Putin believes he now has the upper hand in relations with the US because of his sense that the west has lost its dominance in global affairs.”
Russian exports to the US dropped by more than 80% last year, compared to the prewar period, to about $3bn, the lowest since 1992. The only damaging banking sanctions the US can swiftly impose would be the end of an exception from the existing measures, which allows some Russian banks to receive payments for energy exports.”
So yes, we are in favour of a truce with both hands, but we need at least framework guarantees and at least from the United States,
It certainly is not impossible that the Russians would accept this,
We don't need a truce, we need a long-term peace secured by guarantees for the Russian Federation and its citizens. It is a difficult question how to ensure these guarantees,
It is difficult for Putin to agree to this in its current form…Putin has a strong position because Russia is advancing."
How to solve this conundrum? Just as we did after World War II … reconstruction of Ukraine must include economic reconciliation with Russia,
Putin has officially annexed four Ukrainian oblasts as well as Crimea. But Moscow has yet to conquer any of the four entirely,
We can't make that same mistake if we want lasting peace for Ukraine and if we want to split Russia from China,