Repeated use of tariffs would incentivise other countries to reduce reliance on the US, weakening the dollar's global role,
Investors are rattled at the prospects of a full-blown trade war breaking out,
Beyond the rising cost of moving goods across borders, it will disrupt established supply-chains and depress North American business sentiment,
This weekend's actions challenge our underlying view that the Trump administration will strive to limit disruptive policies as it balances its desire to reduce engagement with the world with a commitment to support US businesses,
Breaking global trade may seem like the thing to do to resurrect the US industrial economy, a noble ambition, but, break trade and you disrupt global capital flows necessary to finance the US budget deficit,
This wasn't a shock - it's been telegraphed for weeks - but investors will still feel the jolt as markets adjust to a move almost universally seen as damaging to global growth and financial stability,
We suspect the path of least resistance for now is for Asian currencies and risk assets to weaken, together with a greater risk premia to account for future meaningful tariff moves beyond what we have seen,
I don’t believe market participants have fully grasped the extent of the potential fallout yet, especially as responses from affected countries unfold,
The rebound in household goods spending has also been driven by many promotional events such as earlier Black Friday sales and Cyber Monday, which was in December this year, meaning consumers are still bargain hunting,
The surprise for markets … is that Canada and Mexico retaliated immediately and that others, i.e. China and the EU, may follow their lead, resulting in a sharp contraction in global trade,
Trump’s trade war has started,
The prospect of having a long and protracted trade spat between the world's two biggest economies is causing investors to take risk off the table today,
During Trump’s first term in office, tariffs and trade tensions brought attention to the more general topic of the advantages but also disadvantages of globalisation,
We’ll see what happens,
It’ll be tougher to secure exemptions this time than the last time,
The clearest implication is a stronger dollar,
Trump’s sudden tariffs — such as what we saw with Canada and Mexico over the weekend — have much broader ramifications than just creating a trade war,
There was some optimism in the market that [tariff threats] were just for negotiation, but the market may have underestimated the determination of the Trump administration,
A strong dollar is a disaster for emerging markets,
If the tariff stays on for several months the exchange rate will reach new historic highs,