We think that all the fiscal headroom she (Reeves) rebuilt at the spring statement has now disappeared. We think she's going to have to come back in the autumn and announce another set of either tax rises or spending cuts,
We do share the optimism that the UK is probably closer to potentially agreeing a deal sooner with the U.S. to potentially lower that tariff rate further. So that's certainly a positive potential catalyst for the pound,
Now the question is whether U.S. exceptionalism is about to change and if so, where that leadership will migrate to,
That's where the corrosive impact of uncertainty can really start to have a negative feedback loop into the economy,
If they're going to get pinched by this retreat, I'm a buyer on weakness,
The moves that we've seen in markets so far are a function of flight to safety for the tariff-imposed risk or potential recession. Now we need to think beyond that,
We have no idea where we're going to land, where we're going to be over the next three and a half years, with respect to tariffs,
I think the market will settle down and begin to parse the details and realize it's at worst a mixed bag of news,
Companies loaded up their warehouses and are prepped ... for the next three or four months. But the question is: what happens after that?"
Eye-watering tariffs on a country-by-country basis scream 'negotiation tactic,' which will keep markets on edge for the foreseeable future,
These tariffs will surely push consumers in China and other countries to consume more of their own products or other brands,
Now the big question is how much tolerance it has for true economic pain as negotiations unfold,
People are still going to pay waste management companies to pick up their garbage, or their cell phone bills,
There could be potential for an era of de-globalization from tariffs,