Despite Israel's choice of a low-aggression response to Iran, we have doubts that Israel and Iran’s proxies (Hamas and Hezbollah) are on track for an enduring ceasefire,
Rhetoric from OPEC+ ministers in coming weeks around the unwinding of quotas will be a key driver for prices, with a postponement of the production increases becoming more likely due to the soft fundamental outlook and high break-even prices needed for most cartel members,
Oil prices will remain under pressure for the rest of this year, it may be difficult to see Brent crude oil prices reaching $80 in the foreseeable future,
The recent Israel military action is unlikely to be seen by the market as leading to an escalation that impacts oil supply,
With Israel deliberately, and perhaps with some American encouragement, avoiding the targeting of crude oil facilities, the oil market is back to looking at an oversupplied market,
We do not seek war, but we will defend our country and the rights of our people. We will give a proportionate response to the aggression,
Investors breathed a sigh of relief as the attack was more restrained than expected,
The market expects the US tech giants to continue to report double digit earnings growth for the next five quarters, so there are some big expectations for these companies,
Israel's strike, carefully avoiding energy sites, has softened fears of a full-scale conflict with Iran,
Even more telling is Iran's response, downplaying the attack's impact and signaling that its warnings may have deterred any more aggressive action from Israel,
The market can breathe a big sigh of relief; the known unknown that was Israel's eventual response to Iran has been resolved,
Israel's not attacking oil infrastructure, and reports that Iran won't respond to the strike remove an element of uncertainty,
But I would expect such downside reaction to be only temporary, as I believe the market didn't price a large risk premium,
It's very likely we see a 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' type reaction when the crude oil futures markets reopen tomorrow,