Trump holds grudges, and he’s got a grudge against China,
That political constraint is very different – knowing he’s never going to face the voters again,
Let's talk about it tomorrow."
We will likely see retaliation against American companies in China where they could be step-by-step squeezed out of the China market and replaced,
China is already focused on ridding itself of dependence on U.S. farm products. If alternative supplies are available, China may well shift away from American farmers where they can,
The worst part is the consumer brands that are not of a strategic nature and themselves are not controversial and would not be subject to export restrictions might be punished by the local consumer because of their nationality,
The Trump administration's actions may be seen or may be interpreted as economic war,
If America is withdrawing from the global system, there is a space for someone else to step in--and China is one of the very few countries who both have some capacity and some intention to fill in that gap,
China wants to signal that it's not going to be very wise to completely side with the US--and to consider working with China as well,
Beijing does worry about Trump's wrath and what he could do to damage China's interest on a bilateral level...China will have to balance its advancement for global leadership with considerations of relations with the US, and to avoid poking Trump in the eye,
For G20 and APEC, China's message will be 'There is major uncertainty ahead, but China is the certainty and will remain committed to peace and development,
It’ll be harder for the US to engage in a strategy of shock and awe because they’ve already been previously shocked and awed. They’re better prepared for the uncertainty and volatility and individual measures simply by having had that experience. In addition, I think the Chinese have already used the last several months to game out the election and potential strategies, tactics of the incoming Trump administration, and also evaluate the potential economic effect on China,
I think if the US were to shift from a strategy of trying to mitigate risks from derisking to decoupling, then that would run head-on into opposition from others who believe that you can both mitigate the national security risk while having a robust commercial relationship. Actually, there are elements of the commercial relationship which provide national security benefits to those other countries,