Quotes
I think I'll put around like, $1,500 for Trump,
said another, only to
Your average voter isn't spending time or money on prediction markets – those platforms are being dominated by crypto-native users, and those users are voting for Trump,
said Michael Cahill, CEO of Web3-focused developer Douro Labs
That $2 billion cumulative headline figure looks impressive and obviously for a brand new platform it is, but that doesn't reflect active markets entirely,
McCarthy addedOdds on Polymarket are derived from the market price of a contract that pays $1 if an event occurs and expires worthless if it doesn’t,
a Polymarket blog post reads
A big point of confusion is that both vote share and odds are expressed as a percent, but do not mean the same thing,
Polymarket wrote on its Substack pageThe idea is if people disagree with the market price, they have the opportunity to capitalize by buying the side they think is priced too low,
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan explained in a social media postTrump and right wing influencers are pushing these polymarket odds as a poll,
Claudio Vallejo, an online creator, said via a TikTok videoThe full list of actual conservatives that get polled by political pollsters,
read one ad, which depicted a man squinting at a small piece of paperWhen people look at polls, one is just expecting real precision at a specific moment,
John Fortier, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute focusing on topics such as election demographics and voting, told NBC News last weekDon’t trust the polls — trust the markets,
some ads for the platform readTired of biased polls? Find out what’s really happening in the 2024 race,
the caption statedI just see the possibilities for more market distortion,
he said