The better growth we are seeing in Corporate America may be contributing to the ability of 10-year yields to find a bottom for now,
Trump's Davos speech contained some ostensibly positive lines (he called for OPEC to lower oil prices, demanded central banks lower interest rates, and reiterated prior pledges to slash taxes and regulation) but there was very little either incremental or within his control,
He really can’t control interest rates, but the market likes to hear that kind of stuff,
Those market internals are starting to suggest that it's going to fade here, even starting [Wednesday] or [Thursday],
What we suspect is that this is the interruption in the correction, not the end of it,
I'm also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil,
I'll demand that interest rates drop immediately,
The result is the worst inflation crisis in modern history, and sky-high interest rates for our citizens and even throughout the world. Food prices and the price of almost every other thing known to mankind went through the roof,
One new area of interest may be the international tax code, where he could potentially tariff (countries) trying to enact the (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's) Global Minimum Tax – clearly something on the mind of his tech industry sponsors,
The number one risk that we're looking at heading into this year are the valuations, which is why we feel very strongly that you need to have earnings back this up,
You need fairly good outcomes to justify those prices,
Asset prices are kind of inflated, by any measure. They are in the top 10% or 15%" of historical valuations
All in all, the market is optimistic the more they hear about Trump policies. We're just seeing a reflection of that optimism,
Forward earnings estimates continue to make new highs. There's been a lot of discussion about the elections, and then post-elections and the Fed, and is the economy growing too fast or too slow. One thing that's been remarkably resilient is forward earnings estimates, and we're off to a good start as well,
This data set tells us that the current period of stock market malaise may not be done yet, as the four-week average hasn't yet returned to one standard deviation below the long-term average, a level that helped mark the lows in US equities in the fall of 2023,
The spread between AAII Bullish Sentiment and AAII Bearish Sentiment dropped deeper into bearish territory even as the US equity market rallied last week,
But the removal of froth in investor sentiment that was evident in this survey in October 2024 admittedly improves the setup for stocks over the next 6-12 months,