I have told Maduro that the only chance for Venezuela to return to normality is to have a widely respected electoral process,
Regardless of whether there is a transition to Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, some type of crackdown within the Maduro government, or if Maduro holds onto power in a very blunt violation of the electoral process, in any of those three scenarios you will face challenges,
The risk that more people could flee is also a major concern for other countries in the region, especially for Colombia, which has received around 35 percent of that [migrating] population, but of course also for the US,
This is not considered a fair election at all, but it’s also not Nicaragua,
Although it’s true that Maria Corina Machado, the winner of the primary, was arbitrarily banned from running, that the replacement her party chose was banned, there are still other opposition candidates,
You also have the six-month period between these elections and the moment whoever wins the elections will take power, so that period will also be very delicate,
The minimum wage in Venezuela can be around $130 per month, but what a family needs just to cover their basic needs is around $500,
The United States is prepared to calibrate our sanctions policy vis a vis events as they may unfold in Venezuela,
What many are hoping for, ... is that we can use the oil, instead of expenditure on education and healthcare, for a deal. Of course, in practice, this can’t happen with sanctions. Until they’re lifted, we won’t restructure the debt and will continue to struggle.”
Given the mountain of the obligations, it will need to be cleared before the next government can kick start growth,
The appointment of advisers is a sign that Maduro is intent on engaging with creditors and re-inserting Venezuela back into global financial markets.”
Even accounting for low output in recent years, fossil fuels continue to make up almost half of Venezuela’s official exports. So when sales fall, from meagre production or low prices, the economy suffers,
I’m not sure what will happen next Monday. There’s talk of things getting violent. But even if Gonzalez wins, ... I’m not sure he can transform the country like Chavez did.”
To be clear, sanctions have constrained Venezuela’s oil and gas sector. But that sits alongside administrative negligence,
Because Venezuela relies on imports for basic goods, its brush with hyperinflation led to import compression. For years, supermarkets and pharmacies were understocked. This’s what encouraged so many Venezuelans to leave, cratering growth even further,
But, ... a wholesale recovery cannot take place under sanctions. If Gonzalez wins, they can probably be lifted quickly. If Maduro wins, even cleanly, I wouldn’t expect a change in the US position, regardless of who becomes president this November.”
Clearly, American restrictions have an extremely negative impact,
Life has been hard for years now. It’s true that food prices have come down recently, but they’re still so high,
In theory, that will mean a sovereign debt restructuring in which the government can negotiate with lenders to reduce the amount owed,
On Sunday the future of Venezuela will be decided for the next 50 years,