Quotes
We are in this generational point, really, where we do need to step up across Europe in terms of our capability, our funding and our commitment to defence, because this isn't just about Ukraine, it is about our own national security
he said
But part of my message to our European allies is that we've all got to step up on both capability and on spending and funding,
he saidA ‘bluff and pray’ approach that uses too few troops and is essentially based on the hope that Russia will not test it would be negligent and increases the likelihood of war in Europe.”
Major concludes
The most influential member of Nato seems to be Vladimir Putin right now,
he jokedFinding a European sui generis model is hard since what the Europeans can provide ad hoc would not offer credible protection,
Claudia Major, a German security expert, wrote in a working paper for SWP (German Institute for International and Security Affairs) in JanuaryProviding too few troops, or tripwire forces without reinforcements, would amount to a bluff that could invite Russia to test the waters. There would be little Nato could do about it”
But Major warnsDisagreements between the US and Europe have taken on a completely new quality,
he said in his weekly email to supportersA mission entirely without US support is inconceivable because of the mix of capabilities required for such an endeavour. US capabilities in the areas of air patrol, air and missile defence, and [command and control] in general, remain key capabilities and an indispensable prerequisite for the deployment of allied forces. While most, if not all, US operations could be conducted remotely without requiring a large US military footprint in Ukraine, a US military presence would significantly reinforce the deterrence message.”
Major writesBased on the strength of the Russian armed forces deployed in Ukraine (approximately 600,000-700,000), and taking into account the Ukrainian armed forces (more than 100 brigades), the ideal additional western contingent strength required would be around 150,000 soldiers. As these forces would be on permanent standby, there would be a need to rotate them. This would effectively triple the force requirement.”
She continuesOne thing has to be made clear: this is not conservatism, or what conservatism used to mean. This is authoritarian-revolutionary.”
He addedThere is a lot of hot air and not much clarity about what the US is saying and what it is expecting. Let’s make sure we are not reacting to the wrong things,
he saidWe have moved from a world of rules and multilateral institutions to strongmen making deals over the heads of weaker, and smaller countries,
he saidWe need to take more responsibility, hike up defence spending and think how Europe can give value added to the US,
he saidWe try to reflect and look for the perfect solution. We are very process oriented, and not results oriented”.
He saidOne interpretation about what has happened in the last few days is that maybe this US administration does not quite like us very much, and maybe if we act by spending more on defence, and all the rest of it, we can somehow rekindle US interest and perhaps even US affection for Europe, including Ukraine. That is the best case scenario,
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The question is: under what political and financial conditions would Paris and London be prepared to maintain or expand their own strategic capabilities for collective security?”
Lindner wrote last yearEuropeans may simply not have the time for gradualism in security integration any more,
De Weck wroteFrench leaders have three main worries,
an analysis published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) statedBut I think he's really a little bit scared about the President Trump,
Zelenskyy added
I said that [Putin] is a liar,
Zelenskyy said of a recent phone call to Trump