Reciprocal tariffs do not serve the principles of free and fair trade stipulated under the World Trade Organisation,
The precise impact is expected to be significant and will be clearer once more information is received on the implementation timeline, tariff rates, product coverage (including exemptions), and the outcome of trade negotiations,
For the EMs, every 100bps decline in global trade openness (imports+exports/GDP) results in a 200-600bps decline in per capita income and a 123bps loss in productivity".
The maximum increase in tariffs is on emerging economies, particularly in Asia and Eastern Europe, with Southeast Asia, followed by Eastern and Continental Europe, and the Middle East."
The ASEAN economies we cover were hard hit by tariffs as we had expected, but the magnitude of the hit is much larger than we (envisaged),
Vietnam, and many countries on the list, will need to think long and hard (about) their relationships with the US,
We are still assessing the macroeconomic implications of the announced tariff measures, but they clearly represent a significant risk to the global outlook at a time of sluggish growth,
On one hand, there is opportunity, certainly for the United States to get involved,
There was an assumption that a second Trump administration would look broadly similar to the first one, which was not too big a departure of traditional U.S. foreign and economic policy,
Japan has been working with ASEAN for more than 50 years,
Trump foreign policy hadn’t taken root,
Sometimes influence isn’t found in the barrel of a gun,
The magnitude and breadth of the new U.S. tariffs may slow growth in the U.S. and globally so significantly that it will shrink total East Asian export opportunities rather than simply shifting production within it,
We view with guarded optimism that the recent US imposition of reciprocal tariffs will provide strategic opportunities for the Philippines to improve its economic relationship with the US,
Provided that the lower tariffs on Philippine imports at 17% would be significant versus the overall cost of production compared to other Asian/ASEAN countries, other ASEAN/Asian countries with higher U.S. import tariffs could look for alternative export markets other than the U.S., such as more exports to the Philippines,
We are carefully studying the impact of reciprocal tariffs on agri-based products, particularly food exports, noting that these are not covered by the exemptions,
If the tariffs result in retaliations, then it would slow down the global economy. Given its negative consequences on the Philippine and global economy, the tariffs are expected to weigh on the local stock market,
It may even cause the Fed to completely halt, if not reverse, its policy easing, which in turn could have a ripple effect on other monetary policies across the globe, especially in emerging markets,
If we are lower than our competitors, then it does not necessarily mean that it will be bad for us, as a matter of fact, it might even be an opportunity,
As far as agriculture is concerned, among the country’s competitors for exporting to the US are Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand.”