In our assessment a lot of this (market sell-off) has been down to position capitulation as a number of macro funds have been caught the wrong way around on a trade, and stops have been triggered, initially starting with FX and the Japanese yen,
We think it's really wrong to start fundamentally reassessing your view on the outlook here. Doing so is simply fitting a narrative to match the price action,
You can't unwind the biggest carry trade the world has ever seen without breaking a few heads,
It's a yen-funded carry unwind and Japanese stock unwind,
We don't see evidence in data that's saying we're looking at a hard landing,
Despite the widespread downturn in global markets, A-shares' resilience against declines indicates that previous adjustments have been quite sufficient,
More importantly, it (the stock slump) may reflect fundamental concerns, specifically the unclear economic outlook in the US, with the recent data releases, including labor market indicators, also below expectations,
Capital tends to seek new valuation opportunities, and A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are undoubtedly among these attractive valuation areas,
As to how much it may draw in terms of foreign investment, it will also depend on domestic economic conditions and policy developments,
The Fed's job is very straightforward, maximize employment, stabilize prices and maintain financial stability. That's what we're going to do,
The fed funds rate right now should be somewhere between 3.5% and 4%,
Don't think that the Fed knows something. ... Since when has the Fed known anything about the economy?"
To put it mildly, the spike in volatility-of-volatility is a spectacle that underlines just how jittery markets have become,
Everyone must be prepared for a global stock market crash, this is part of the business cycle,
It is difficult to predict when the decline will stop. It's too early to tell,
The fundamentals for TSMC have not changed at all. Yes, there was market talk last week that delivery of Nvidia's new GB 200 chips would be delayed, and Intel's earnings results were terrible. But TSMC and the upstream AI supply chain would not be affected by those events,
We think the decline will continue into the next two days, seeking technical support levels of 19,200-19,300 points,
Now that the Fed looks to be materially behind the curve, we expect a 50bp cut at the September meeting, followed by another 50bp cut in November,
The shift in expected interest rate differentials against the US has outweighed the deterioration in risk sentiment,
We have increased our 12-month recession odds by 10pp to 25 per cent,