This does not mean that a decision has been made to start a war, but Russia is arming and building the capacity to make that decision,
I don't think Russia has the capability or intent of an offensive war. I'm also very wary of European intelligence services confidently making predictions, given their inability to predict Russia's invasion of Feb 22. Or Crimea in 2014.
The key part is "without US involvement". Five years sounds like a long time, until you consider how long serious European rearmament would take & the respective starting positions of Europe and Russia. And consider the limited scope of what we've managed in three years 2022-25."
The Ministry of Defence of Russia must be ready for any development of events, including a possible military conflict with NATO in Europe in the next decade,
We see an increased willingness on the Russian side to challenge NATO, and we see an
Russia is likely to be more willing to use military force in a regional war against one or more European NATO countries if it perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided,
This is particularly true if Russia assesses that the U.S. cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a war with Russia,