Wall Street hits record high as Donald Trump returns as United States president

Ahmet Kayaturkish-Kurdish singer

Because the UK is a small, open economy, the UK is one of the most affected by increased trade tariffs

warns Ahmet Kaya, principal economist at the NIESR

Refining margins have seen some softness of late and with global demand looking uncertain, weaker oil prices could still weigh on the stock.

But she notes

Elections, particularly ones as contentious as this, have a way of stirring up short-term market volatility

But in a note of caution, Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St James's Place, says

Its longer-term prospects should improve under Trump and near-term there is a chance it could say that hurricane clean-up work has provided a welcome boost to earnings.

He adds

We suspect that the more important story for the bond market is just the inflationary effect of Trump's policies, including the tax cuts but also the tariffs and immigration reductions, all of which would be likely to result in a higher path for the federal funds rate."

Thomas Matthews of consultancy Capital Economics wrote

Bitcoin is the one asset that was always going to soar if Trump returned to the White House,

wrote Russ Mould, investment director at online trading platform AJ Bell

On the assumption that Trump will move to increase some tariffs relatively quickly, it is Rabobank's view that the Fed's easing cycle could be over early next year as policymakers react to the inflationary implications of tariffs,

they wrote

While he, and others that surround him such as Elon Musk, want to cut the size of the state, public spending is likely to remain very high and taxes kept low,

she added

We're going to help our country heal, ... We're going to fix everything about our country."

Trump said Tuesday

With the Federal Reserve expected to announce a likely 25 basis-point cut tomorrow, we are already seeing expectations reined in for the December meeting given the perception that Trump's policies are inherently inflationary,

forecast Joshua Mahony, analyst at traders Scope Markets

Investors are bracing for tariffs and a clampdown on (US) immigration, policies considered to be inflationary which are likely to mean interest rates may be more elevated in the years to come,

said Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown

Another Trump presidency is likely to place emphasis on energy independence and his policies are likely to favour fossil fuels, promoting deregulation in the oil, gas, and coal industries,

she said

Markets are a little on edge about the idea that a Trump administration will come with a lot of communication that will be difficult to separate the noise from signal,

said DWS Group's Bianco

There are still going to be some question marks as to how aggressive Trump does go with tariffs, and that's going to be a story regardless of the composition of Congress, given that can be pushed through via executive action,

said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers

In the shorter term, equity investors will look upon favorably a Trump victory because the potential for him" to extend current tax cuts

said Jake Seltz, portfolio manager with Allspring Global Investments

A Trump victory is likely to mean a more lax regulatory environment, escalating trade tariffs and potential attempts to repeal components of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Blair Couper, investment director at abrdn, says

Looking at Trump’s campaign promises, as well as his actions during his last presidency in 2017, we expect his presidency to bring reduced regulations across the board

James’s Place, says

Owning an S&P 500 index fund will mean have significant exposure to the Big Tech stocks that are facing increased scrutiny under anti-trust regulations.

But he adds

Stocks markets so far like the clarity of the Trump win this morning and futures are pointing to a firm open,

Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Finalto, said in a morning note

The so-called 'Trump trade' is in full swing this morning,

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said in a note