Years ago, the ROK committed to raise its percentage of GDP spent on defense to 3 percent, but this percentage has in practice stalled at around 2.5 percent, and the size of the active-duty ROK military has now fallen from 690,000 to around 500,000 personnel, in part due to demographics and in part due to political decisions to reduce the time draftees serve in the military. And all of this during a time when the North Korean threat has been growing,
The threat perception of the U.S. — a country insulated by two oceans — cannot help but be notably lower compared with other allies,
President Trump has often expressed his view that our European allies need to do more to strengthen their defense. At a minimum, these latest comments should encourage them to do this, and more quickly than many may have planned,
For this reason, I do not think Trump wants to allow North Korea to attack a U.S. ally — including South Korea — as this would make him look weak and undermine stability throughout the region,
The good idea is that Europeans should do more for their own defense. But the bad ideas in his recent statements are many: the decision to treat with Putin; using Putin's own language to define the responsibility for the war in Ukraine; and excluding Ukraine and Europe from negotiations,
We have a big, beautiful ocean as separation,
It should therefore not be surprising that President Trump would ask the ROK to increase its defense spending. But I do not believe that we have seen such a request yet. When we do, a ROK defense budget of 3 percent of GDP would be a likely request from Trump, since the ROK previously committed to such,
That said, relatively weaker countries in the (U.S.-led) alliance architecture, including European countries, South Korea and Japan, cannot help but be worried about potential abandonment by the (stronger) ally. Trump appears to be relishing this situation and looking to maximize the benefit from it in future transactions with allies,
All of this may sound appealing to some in the United States who no longer wish to bear the burden of defense, but it will also harm American interests, not just those of our allies and partners, many of which have in the past shown us deference in the economic domain,
We don't yet know how the president will approach similar issues with our Asian allies. No doubt he will continue to press for greater defense contributions from Korea, Japan and others,
The opposition to such moves, from Congress and portions of the public, would be even stronger than what we have seen thus far regarding Europe,
The fundamental fact is that North Korea is not a primary threat to the U.S. It would not be rational to lose multiple American cities to just deal with North Korea. That's a different calculation for South Korea,
We must prepare for the possibility that Donald Trump will no longer uphold NATO’s mutual defense commitment unconditionally,
I wouldn’t bet everything I have on any question I’m asked, and certainly not on this one.”
We need to have discussions with both the British and the French — the two European nuclear powers — about whether nuclear sharing, or at least nuclear security from the U.K. and France, could also apply to us,
The new U.S. administration is trying to weaken European countries, including Türkiye."
I honestly think that the EU this week is a bit in shock,
Given U.S. threats to draw down its forces stationed in Europe, Türkiye's contributions will be increasingly vital for the security and stability of the continent."
Washington's drastic policy shifts serve as an incentive for EU countries to cooperate more, as well as for new strategic partners like Türkiye and the U.K. to play a bigger role. This applies both to Ukraine, as well as in the context of European procurement and production,
Türkiye has become even more important for NATO since Washington has shown less interest in the European security architecture. Threats are emanating from the Black Sea, from the Mediterranean, and hybridity in ways that would have been unimaginable decades ago."