The sharp pullback in the US dollar, along with tariff relief hopes, are likely to see markets retain their gains, barring any unexpected souring in US-China talks ahead,
Those are riskier cryptos” than bitcoin
The flip side of like this asset gaining respectability and finding a role in institutional portfolios is now all of a sudden you’re exposed to the liquidity constraints that larger investors face,
The volatility is something that we have leaned into in a big way since the turn of the calendar,
Dividend-paying stocks in general tend to be less sensitive to interest rates because you are getting more of your return in the form of dividends,
Initially, Treasury yields are likely to rise as tariffs raise inflation,
Covered calls tend to generally work best when we need them most,
Think about what industries are going to be vulnerable to some of these tariffs,
During normal times, I encourage people, especially retirees, to carve out a portion of their bond portfolio and build a bond ladder using short-term Treasurys, or brokered bank CDs,
Under those circumstances, the window for the Fed to resume cutting interest rates at any point over the next 12 to 18 months just slammed shut,
Obviously there is some uncertainty about whether these tariffs will go ahead or not, given the one-month pause of the Mexico one announced today,
That would knock out at least one and plausibly both remaining Fed cuts this year,
There’s a lot of uncertainty about how policies unfold,
We’ve had a couple of meetings, we’ve had numerous phone calls. We’re getting along very well. We’ll see whether or not we can balance out our budget,
Investors are rattled at the prospects of a full-blown trade war breaking out,
Beyond the rising cost of moving goods across borders, it will disrupt established supply-chains and depress North American business sentiment,
We suspect the path of least resistance for now is for Asian currencies and risk assets to weaken, together with a greater risk premia to account for future meaningful tariff moves beyond what we have seen,
This wasn't a shock - it's been telegraphed for weeks - but investors will still feel the jolt as markets adjust to a move almost universally seen as damaging to global growth and financial stability,
I don’t believe market participants have fully grasped the extent of the potential fallout yet, especially as responses from affected countries unfold,
The surprise for markets … is that Canada and Mexico retaliated immediately and that others, i.e. China and the EU, may follow their lead, resulting in a sharp contraction in global trade,