Ukraine Kursk offensive: What Kyiv stands to gain and lose in surprise counterattack on Russian soil

The Russian military command may continue to prioritize the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove direction but deprioritize offensive operations in another sector of the front, such as the Kupyansk or Borova directions, in order to redeploy forces to the Toretsk direction."

Quote from the ISW

Russian forces appear to be shifting assault tactics in Toretsk in order to overwhelm Ukrainian forces and facilitate tactical gains within the settlement."

Quote from the ISW

Such advances would complicate Ukraine's ability to counterattack into Russia's near rear southeast of Chasiv Yar, including towards Klishchiivka, and would allow Russian forces to deploy additional artillery systems within range of Kostyantynivka and operate first-person-view (FPV) drones within range of the town."

Quote from the ISW

Offensive would mean that large units of the armed forces would carry out an attack at an operational level in order to achieve strategic objectives,

Reisner said

If Russia takes a little bit more or all of Pokrovsk, it advances to the west,

Joshi told DW

An intention could be to put Russian forces on the back foot in order to prevent them from mounting their own continued offensive,

Joshi told DW

I believe that we will continue to see a few surprises with regard to January 20."

Markus Reisner echoed this view

It's complicated by the fact that there is also a pretty significant Russian offensive underway in Kursk at the same time,

he added

Looking at the northeast of Ukraine, it is clear that the front is not completely secured by the Russian side,

he said

If a paratrooper runs out of ammunition, he crushes the enemy with his armor and wheels!"

Ukraine's Air Assault Forces on Telegram on Monday

Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost up to 485 servicemen in the Kursk direction."

Russia's Defense Ministry on Telegram on Monday night

Volodymyr Zelenskyypresident

During the Kursk operation, the enemy has already lost 38,000 of their soldiers in this direction alone, with nearly 15,000 of these losses being irreversible,

Mr Zelensky said in his nightly video address

Kaja KallaseU foreign policy chief

Ukraine has the right to defend itself, and under international law, this right extends beyond its borders,

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said in a statement to Reuters

We are committed to putting Ukraine in the strongest possible position on the battlefield, including by surging security assistance and utilising all available resources authorised by the Congress.”

A US state department spokesperson said

The Europeans will have to construct security guarantees for Ukraine, which will be primarily their responsibility,

he said

Andriy Yermakukrainian presidential chief of staff

Kursk region, good news, Russia is getting what it deserves

The head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Andriy Yermak, said

There’s a likelihood that we haven’t seen the main thrust of this Ukrainian offensive operation just yet,

he told Reuters

The strike and a series of recent operations against Russian units in Kursk region were co-ordinated with the Ukrainian ground forces, who are currently commencing new offensive operations against the Russian armed forces,

Kyiv said

Of course, this is a negative lesson, a negative experience,

said Ukrainian ground forces commander Mykhailo Drapatyi

The situation in Kurakhove is quite difficult at the moment, as a large part of the town has been destroyed. Ukrainian troops are holding the western part of the town ... They also control the power plant located in the town,

Ukrainian military spokesman Viktor Trehubov said on Tuesday