While the outlook for 2025 is essentially unchanged, global growth is likely to be a little stronger in 2026 and 2027 on the back of the election result, as the impact of looser U.S. fiscal policy more than offsets the drag from targeted tariff measures,
The multilateral world of the 1990-2000s will no longer exist,
I am going to put tariffs on other countries coming into our country, and that has nothing to do with taxes to us. That is a tax on another country,
The broad assessment of the consequences of that is that the Fed would be forced to raise interest rates, and all that combined would still serve to increase inflation even as unemployment increased and GDP slowed,
If the PMI new export sub-index has been going down, and the export figure goes up, I think it is safe to say it's more of an inventory shift,
We expect shipments to stay strong in the coming months,
Trump's return could create a short-term boost to Chinese exports as US importers increase their purchases to get ahead of the tariffs,
We can anticipate a lot of front-loading going into the fourth quarter, before the pressure kicks in come 2025,
The further slowdown in import growth is mainly due to the weak recovery of domestic effective demand and impact of low import prices and rising bases,
The authorities will also consider some policy measures to offset the tariff impacts such as subsidies or access to funding,
Rather than providing a silicon shield, Taiwan’s dominance in the chip industry could actually be the source of tension between Taipei and Trump, as Taiwan’s successes in the chip sector may be seen as having only been possible as a result of the United States being taken advantage of,
Will (he) want to turn to support Taiwan independence? It is unlikely,
Given the weak economic position of China this time, I think there will be more willingness to talk,
While a second Trump presidency is expected to recalibrate American trade policy, the actual impact on Vietnam would heavily depend on the specific scope and targets of those policy changes,
The potential for Vietnam to attract more companies relocating from China remains strong, yet tariffs and trade restrictions may jeopardize these gains,
He will at least threaten them with the tariffs and if they don’t negotiate to his liking, Trump will put them on,
There will be quite a lot of disruption in the world trading system,
How far tariffs go depends on how far President Xi is willing to negotiate with Trump,
Despite Trump's assertions to the contrary, tariffs are paid by the companies or entities importing goods and not by the countries themselves. This means the cost of buying products from overseas, whether directly or as an input for manufacturing, would rise sharply,
The adoption of across-the-board tariffs on consumer goods and other non-strategic imports amounts to a tax on American families,